標題: IMF forecasts reveal global growth higher than 2017 [打印本頁] 作者: tishaislam33 時間: 2023-12-14 11:25 標題: IMF forecasts reveal global growth higher than 2017 The IMF predicts that in 2018 there will be growth in the world economy slightly higher than that recorded in 2017 (3.9%). This evolution would be the result of the strengthening of emerging economies, whose average growth would be close to 5%, while the pace of expansion of advanced economies would stabilize around the 2.3% recorded last year. However, heterogeneity is notable in both aggregates. Among advanced economies, a substantial increase in the pace of growth is anticipated in the United States, mainly as a result of the fiscal impulse, which could have a positive impact on growth of between 1 and 0.5 percentage points. In the euro zone, the dynamism of activity will tend to reduce slightly after the positive surprises registered in 2017, the same as in the United Kingdom, the uncertainty associated with the process of its exit from the EU will also remain and the moderation of growth would be somewhat more intense in the case of Japan. Emerging economies As far as emerging economies are concerned, Brazil, Argentina, Russia and Nigeria, which emerged from the recession in 2017, are expected to continue strengthening, and other raw material exporting economies, such as Saudi Arabia, are expected to grow. benefit from the current level of oil prices. In general, emerging economies will be conditioned by the tightening of global financial conditions, by the continuity of the recovery of world trade and by the intensity of the slowdown in China.
On the other hand, the outlook for Latin American economies points to a moderate strengthening of the recovery, but with a particular sensitivity towards the eventual normalization of global financial conditions. Inflation and credit rating With Special Data regard to inflation, in the absence of marked movements in the prices of raw materials, the progressive reduction of the degree of slack in advanced economies and in some emerging economies would point to an approximation of inflation rates towards the objectives of central banks. In aggregate terms, credit improvements are anticipated for 2018 in Europe and emerging Asian countries, while negative outlooks predominate in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. There are also some elements of upward risks to growth, derived from the context of high levels of consumer and business confidence in most advanced economies, and the potential impact of the fiscal policy measures recently approved in the United States. However, the main downside risk scenario is linked to the sudden correction of the current situation in international financial markets, characterized by high asset valuations, reduced levels of volatility and risk premiums, and high appetite for investor risk.
This correction could be triggered by the materialization of geopolitical conflicts, economic policy measures not anticipated by the agents, or by increases in inflation above what was anticipated. Threats and challenges On the other hand, the insufficient correction of some imbalances, such as foreign debt, could lead to a scenario of persistently low growth, which would be accentuated if the protectionist drift materializes. Among emerging economies, the risks associated with the transition of the economic model in China continue to stand out, although the measures that have begun to be applied mitigate the possibilities of a sudden adjustment. In short, the world economy has begun 2018 in a context of contained inflation and favorable financial conditions, but it is not without challenges. Specifically, macroeconomic policies should avoid procyclicality and facilitate the adoption of reforms aimed at increasing growth potential and resilience, so that the benefits of globalization and technological advances reach all sectors of the population.
